News Goat

There have been many opinions expressed about the current euro crisis. These have differed widely and have in many cases seemed to be based as much on pro or anti-European sentiment as on any kind of serious analysis.

With the year coming to an end, just where are we? According to a hard hitting assessment from Scotland’s private bank Adam & Company, things are still looking sketchy. There is not much in the way of immediate amelioration for the euro crisis as a whole, and there are some specific sticking points.

The most notable failure so far has been the ability of Europe’s leaders to reach an agreement regarding the long term future of ECB bond buying. Rating downgrades are very much still on the cards, with the kinds of measures that would prevent such occurrences held back behind all kinds of political roadblocks. The kinds of austerity measures and so forth that are being pushed for are being held back by the need for parliamentary seals of approval and in some cases even referendums.

Of course there are those that long predicted this kind of impasse would result from the euro project. The different nation states that comprise the eurozone and the wider union have different and sometimes competing interests.

There does seem to be some indication that a certain amount of progress is being made towards a deep level structural reform. In the shorter term however this progress is not doing much good, with a large amount of nervousness and uncertainty in the markets.

It seems as though the general plan for the EU (excluding the UK of course, after Cameron laid down the veto) is not to make an amendment to the Lisbon treaty but to instead come to what is being termed an ‘intergovernmental agreement’. Comparisons between this and the 1985 Schengen Agreement are being made.

In news that will delight home owners, it has been predicted that house prices in Britain will rise by 2% in 2012.

This prediction comes from an analysis published by the estate agency website Rightmove. The reason that they think that prices are going to rise is because there is a shortage of fresh properties coming onto the market. It is thought that the number of new sellers in 2012 will be 1.2 million, even less than this year.

A bullish prediction for house prices is not universal. Others have stated that they believe that the market would in fact stagnate. There are a number of factors that are thought to be keeping prices down.

There is undoubtedly a lot of uncertainty in the economy. It has also proved tricky to get good deals on mortgages for many. The most worrying factor however is the shortage of first time buyers entering the market.

It is considered that for the housing market to be ‘healthy’ that there need to be about 40% new buyers entering the market each year. The percentage of first time buyers has fallen below 25%.

The news that prices are set for  an increase could give the impetus to those that have been holding off from entering the housing market. There are first time buyer mortgages that cater specifically for this market, but having a reassurance that a negative equity trap is not lurking may help make up some minds.

There will also be new restrictions on mortgage lending coming into force in 2012. The effects of these on the market are not known yet, b but long term not lending to those who cannot afford repayments can only be a stabilising factor, and possibly the reduced levels of bad debt in the system will keep the costs of mortgages down for those that can afford to make repayments.

Sixty years ago a British company was first to market with a computer designed for office work. Amazingly it was a catering company that had developed the pioneering LEO system.

Caterers Lyons operated 150 tea shops in the London area, and had previously funded investments in baking technology and transportation. The system they created was used for payroll and stock control within the Lyons, and was sold widely to others.